Need More Rigs

After lagging the initial frac count surge, rig deployments are poised to meaningfully outperform in coming months. The key to rig adds will likely be driven by 1) private E&Ps 2) dwindling DUC backlog 3) non-Permian drilling and 4) peaking efficiencies. Altogether, we are anticipating...

Oil Pain; Gas Gains

While painful for oil producers, this weeks crude price drop is precisely what is needed to keep the natural gas rally alive. The most obvious catalyst is further reduction in associated gas as oil production falls further in 2021E (NO chance of making it to...

Merger Gains; Service Pain

In this note, we look at the devastating impact that E&P consolidation has had / will have on the service industry, particularly as it relates to reduction in spending, rig count, completions, and frac crews. Meanwhile, the service industry appears to be sitting on their...

DUC Dive

This week, we tackle data behind the large U.S. shale DUC backlog. After stressing DUCs in April, our view is that DUCs are now being overemphasized as enough fleets have been deployed to address the overhang. Said more directly, recent fleet momentum will stall if...

Shale Maintenance Mode

While Private E&Ps are dead (capex AND production down again in 2021E), Public E&Ps are on life support with production potentially MAINTAINED at Q4’20 exit rates. Further, as we dig into the data in this report, it appears production can be MAINTAINED while also cutting...

Privates are DEAD

Over the last few weeks, we have dug into private operator data, with particular focus on 2021 potential. Broadly speak- ing, Private E&P activity and production could be much lowerthan expected / implied by industry forecasts. Specifically, weare anticipating fewer than 50 rig additions and...

Frac efficiency has STALLED

In this report, we have gathered the most recent frac and efficiency data (wells / stages / sand per day etc). After 10 consecutive quarters of increase, E&Ps are currently fracking wells SLOWER than they did last quarter and early 2020. Reactivation headwinds have been...

Big Frac Retirements

This week, we're highlighting some of the trends related to the recently announced merger between LBRT and Schlumberger’s OneStim unit. Most notable, in our view, is the hard retirement of over 1 million horsepower (HP), leaving less than 16 million HP of total industry capacity...

Bring Out The Hamster Wheel

In this report, we have compiled wells placed on production (POP) data and digested recent budget announcements. The key takeaway has been relatively firm POP completion data in Q2 (~2,000 new wells), despite widespread curtailments and big frac cuts.  However, high Q2 POPs also suggest...

Consumables Bounce

We have compiled data on recent consumables volume (ie sand, stages, water, perfs etc), noting a surprising jump in well intensity in recent months. While some of the increase has been mix driven such as more Northeast / less Rockies, even the remaining Permian operators...

More Fleets On Deck

We have put together a list of E&Ps that could likely add frac fleets over the next couple months based on 1) available capex 2) idle DUCs 3) declining production and 4) field checks. Altogether, we’ve counted ~15-20 E&Ps with near-term need for 20-25 fleets...

Dry-Gas Finally Feels the Pinch

We have compared the latest June and Q2 completion data with recent shale production / demand trends. Looking ahead, the June run rate suggests ~20 fleets still need to be added for completions to be UP sequentially in Q3E, a target that is achievable based...

First Peek at $40/bbl

In this report, we have taken a closer look at 2021E projections with oil prices above $40 for first time since early March. At that time, over 700 horizontal rigs and 250 fleets were fully utilized in the U.S., 200% above the current counts.  While...

Stable Production Needs 165 Fleets

We have downloaded the latest well completion, intensity, and efficiency data. While extremely low activity has come in as expected (down 70% vs Q1’20), intensity and efficiency has been surprising, with operators still focused on big sand loadings and quick turnarounds. In fact, the average...

Rig Efficiency STALLS

We are highlighting data related to rig efficiency, with particular focus on the deterioration over the last couple months (cutbacks have taken priority to new well efficiency). Lower rig efficiency has resulted in even lower well counts in April & May than the rig count...

Uptick At Stateline

While negative data trends are still plentiful (earnings / anec- dotes have also been terrible), in this report we are focusing on several new positive datapoints. Some of these datapoints include 1) select areas that have actually seen an uptick in recent permit activity 2)...

Texas Power Supply

In this report we focus on frac activity in associated gas areas, while also building out plant level gas power data. The key takeaway has been surprisingly steady power demand in areas that consume gas from oily basins such as the Permian, Eagle Ford, and...

Slow to Freeze

This week, we have focused on new drilling data, highlighting a large group of operators that are still spudding wells despite large shut-ins and frac holidays. In total, we count almost 500 new U.S. wells that were spud in April with >100 wells spud last...

Dusting Off Our Gas Data

After this weeks EIA-914 report, we are dusting off our natural gas data, particularly given the severe frac cuts expected in Texas / New Mexico / Rockies and associated gas implications. Meanwhile, frac fleets in the Northeast were already in free-fall before the crisis, highlighted...

Few Survivors

We have taken a best guess at company-by-company fleet and rig cuts based on variables such as available capital, efficiency, well costs, basin exposure, and DUC backlog. Key takeaway is that 130 fleets will potentially be idled by year end (vs 330 currently active -...

Bakken – Gotta Spend to Produce

This week, we have compiled the latest Bakken data with four key operators reporting Wed / Thur (CLR, WLL, OAS, WPX) and EIA North Dakota production due on Friday. As a broad takeaway, North Dakota production has held a tighter correlation to spending than any...

Coras Frac Data – The Efficiency BURN

In this report, we have rounded out Q4’19 data and recalibrated 2020 / 2021, particularly as it relates to efficiency, completions, and frac supply / demand. The most surprising datapoint has been efficiency, which soared again in Q4, putting H1’20 frac demand at a much...

The Permian Machine

The EIA reported monthly 914 data last week, highlighting yet another increase in U.S. shale production in November, driven solely by the Permian. While the increase is disappointing, it reflects Permian stage counts / sand volumes that remained firm through most of Q4 (contrary to...

Permian Dislocations

We’re highlighting Permian sand supply / demand after attending the Houston Frac Sand Conference and reports of improving prices (first reported by InfillThinking). As a broad takeaway 1) Permian sand demand has experienced a sharper than expected pickup in January 2) causing a number of...

Plenty of DUCs

This week, we have updated our DUC count and compared our data to this weeks EIA report and concerns of dwindling DUCs. While our data also highlights declining backlog since June, the decline has been relatively modest with PLENTY OF DUCs left for 2020. With...

Dissecting EIA Production

In this report, we have taken a deeper look at the latest EIA 914 data, while also tying that data to relevant completion / frac stage data. The key takeaway is notable production growth from northern oily regions (ND, CO, WY) despite BIG rig cuts...

Cleanest Shirt In The Hamper

In this report, we have downloaded November spuds and October completions, calling attention to the Permian where thewell count is STABLE and outperforming all other basins. However, firm Permian well counts are going unnoticed due to gross oversupply of oilfield service equipment caused by efficiencies...

Oklahoma Production Unphased

We are highlighting Oklahoma, where production has been unphased despite a 50% cut to the rig count. However, closer look at the data highlights Oklahoma efficiency and intensity gains that have outpaced ALL other basins, leading to a steady volume of stages and sand pumped...

Fleet Count Hits Magic Number

This week, we have highlighted our recent frac inventory count, where aggressive stacking has pushed active fleets down to 360 (after providers largely sat on their hands in early 2019). While this is constructive, it is TOO LITTLE TOO LATE for the frac market, with...

Wells POP UP (again)

In this report, we have highlighted recent wells put-on-production data (POP wells) that continues to increase despite big rig cuts. The key driver to POP well growth has been shale efficiency (+20% y/y completion, +8% y/y drilling) but also enabled by big pricing concessions from...

Northeast 2020 is TERRIBLE

After constructive OFS data trends last week (retirements, baked-in Q4 cuts, production slowing), this week was much more disappointing. A few of the negative trends include 1) Northeast E&Ps announced 2020 spending CUTS of 10-20% — implies more fleets still need to be fired 2)...

Completions Wobbly But OK

We have aggregated 3Q frac completion trends, which are trending down 0-5% versus 2Q19. Contrary to rig count trends, July / August completions actually held up, insulating 3Q from potentially bigger cuts in September (not enough data / satellite imagery yet to make call). Basin...

XOM Surge

XOM data  is our focus this week, where the recent surge in activity has driven the company to spend more in U.S. shale than any other operator (XOM is also now bigger than any one single basin ex-Permian). In the Permian, the XOM surge has...

Lateral Lengths Peaking

In this report, we have updated our lateral length data, productivity metrics, and multi-well pad data. The key takeaway has been continued growth in lateral lengths, driven by Delaware Basin wells (up 30% y/y). However, continued growth in lateral lengths may be in the final...

DUCs Are BIGGER In West Texas

This week, we have focused on recent backlog trends where the Permian DUC count is being overlooked. In other basins, DUCs have been flat or in depletion mode. Longer term, DUC trends imply upside to Permian production, while production in areas like the Eagle Ford...

Private E&Ps Surpass Publics

Our focus this week is on recent Private E&P data, where activity has been better than expected. Private E&Ps are also moving up the learning curve, now fracking wells that are just as large as their public peers while capitalizing on historically low well costs....

Coras Frac Data – The Depressing Grind Down

In this report, we have updated our frac fleet count, highlighting 398 active fleets (315 fully utilized), down another 10-15 fleets from 2Q and down 60 fleets (net) from the peak. Current fleet counts continue to grind lower despite relatively firm completion activity as efficiencies jump...

Budget Cliff Gets Less Scary

In this report, we have processed E&P reported data, paying close attention to remaining 2019 budgets and expected POP (put on production) cadence. The most notable takeaways from E&P earnings data has been 1) 52% of budget spent in 1H19(less than feared) 2) more than...

U.S. Stage Counts at Record High

We have rounded out 2Q stage counts & efficiency data, while also comparing industry data to OFS earnings reports this week. The key takeaway has been another surprising jump in efficiency over the last few months, leading to record high stage counts, utilization, and EBITDA...

Eagle Ford Deteriorating Quickly

This week, we have gathered recent Eagle Ford data, where completion activity is coming under significant pressure. Meanwhile, efficiency data is continuing to push higher, adding further headwinds to the Eagle Ford frac count (EF efficiency way above average @ 7.6 stages/day). On a positive...

Spuds Still Climbing

We have downloaded June / 2Q19 spud & efficiency data, and the key takeaway has been the surprising jump innew wells drilled (up 7% in 2Q19) despite lower rig count. If the current trend continues, 2H19 DUC backog will begin to build (implying more capex...

Coras Data: Last Mile Market

In this last mile focused report, we tied well-by-well intensity / efficiency data to the corresponding last mile solution by leveraging our database, market intel, and satellite imagery. As a broad takeaway, last mile sophistication (monitoring, offloading, communication etc) is driving another step up in...

Coras Mock Data 2020: Picking the winners

We have put together a Mock Data Packet for Q4 2020 that envisions a much more rosy (but very possible) frac world. In this Mock Data, we have consolidated the market into 7 major frac providers that could hypothetically control 85% of the market by...

Bakken Seasonal UPSIDE

This week, we have focused on recent Bakken data, where seasonal strength is likely being overlooked amid broad negative sentiment (completions up double digits in 2Q). North Dakota production has also held up, now accounting for 15% of onshore production despite having only 6% of...

Permian Resiliency

In the latest trends, we have focused on drilling activity in the Permian, where E&Ps have been able to spud more wells while still cutting the rig count.  Better efficiency (more wells w/ fewer rigs) has been the key driver, particularly among the Majors (XOM,...

Coras Frac Update: Hard Landing Starts Early

We are publishing the latest US frac fleet count (410 active) while also highlighting the 1) recent hesitation in completion data and 2) potential hard landing in 2019 (our base case).  As detailed in the report, as many as 20 operators could drop at least...

Frac Bounce Losing Steam

We have downloaded the latest batch of frac submissions and wells placed-on-production data (POP completions). The key takeaway has been a moderation in frac filings following the solid bounce off the bottom in early 2019. Conversely, POP completions are poised to accelerate, driven by the...

Frac Efficiency Takes A Breather

This week, we have updated our frac efficiency data, highlighting a surprising slowdown in stages per day and daily sand pumped (contrary to market sentiment). However, frackers are still getting better at managing white space (fleet proficiency), although not enough to slow the deterioration in...

Wells POP’d Moves Lower

We have processed 1Q / 2019 capex and completion data for E&Ps that reported over the last couple weeks, and our most notable takeaway has been the sharp decline in wells placed on production (POP’d) despite higher spending and frac activity (UP 6% in 1Q19)....