Shale Maintenance Mode
While Private E&Ps are dead (capex AND production down again in 2021E), Public E&Ps are on life support with production potentially MAINTAINED at Q4’20 exit rates. Further, as we dig into the data in this report, it appears production can be MAINTAINED while also cutting spending by another 10%+ next year. Flat production with lower capex is being driven by 1) hi-grading 2) lower cost DUC wells 3) consolidation synergies and 4) continued price concessions from oversupplied service sector. On a positive note, double digit spending cuts (Y/Y) imply the frac fleet count can still grind higher from current levels (135 active fleets), albeit falling short of the 200 active fleets needed to stem the decline in total production (lower Private E&P offset flat Publics).
For access to the full report visit: https://corasresearch.com/reports/