We have taken a best guess at company-by-company fleet and rig cuts based on variables such as available capital, efficiency, well costs, basin exposure, and DUC backlog. Key takeaway is that 130 fleets will potentially be idled by year end (vs 330 currently active – 250 fully utilized), led by the Permian (down 50), Midcon (down 30) and Bakken / DJ (down 25). Public operators, which account for 2/3 of shale production, will potentially slash 70 fleets, down 40% vs Q1’20. Lastly, stage counts could also slow by ~40% by year end, driving a 5-10% reduction in US shale production (down ~900k bbl/d).
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