This week, we tackle data behind the large U.S. shale DUC backlog. After stressing DUCs in April, our view is that DUCs are now being overemphasized as enough fleets have been deployed to address the overhang. Said more directly, recent fleet momentum will stall if more rigs are not added. The key to our view is that 1) true DUCs are only ~4K including 2K excess DUCs (vs EIA bogus 8k count) 2) completion run rate now significantly above the spud rate and 3) DUCs are concentrated with a small numbers of operators such as XTO, EOG, FANG, and PDCE.
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