Privates are DEAD

Over the last few weeks, we have dug into private operator data, with particular focus on 2021 potential. Broadly speak- ing, Private E&P activity and production could be much lowerthan expected / implied by industry forecasts. Specifically, weare anticipating fewer than 50 rig additions and only 20-30fleet reactivations over the next 18months. The lackluster Pri- vate E&P rebound is driven by 1) poor returns – even beforeCOVID 2) a dearth of financing 3) high debt levels 4) heavy non-core acreage positions 5) terrible efficiency metrics and 6) cash flow / bankruptcy risk. Altogether, disappointing Pri-vate E&P profiles likely prevent the U.S. from getting back to 300 / 200 rigs / fleets in 2021, the minimum level needed tostem the decline of US oil production.

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