Coras Frac Data – The Efficiency BURN

In this report, we have rounded out Q4’19 data and recalibrated 2020 / 2021, particularly as it relates to efficiency, completions, and frac supply / demand. The most surprising datapoint has been efficiency, which soared again in Q4, putting H1’20 frac demand at a much lower starting point than previously thought.  While the seasonal recovery will help (January completions already UP >10% m/m), H2’20 outlook is also terrible, with more frac pricing and margin degradation on deck. Lastly, we have studied the long term impact of efficiency gains on supply, finding that 1) despite fewer active fleets, equipment is being burned faster than ever 2) 2020 BURN rate is being absorbed by massive overbuild in 2017-19 but 3) capital starvation, fleet BURN, and attrition can FINALLY result in tight supply / demand by 2021 (assuming ‘20 is sufficiently bad).

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