AC Rigs Gain Share (flat since 2017)

This week, we have updated our high-spec rig data, downloaded January completion submissions, and compiled a list of potential frac sand mine closures. Our key takeaway is the notable increase in AC rig market share in recent months as initial rig cuts have been low-spec mech / SCRs. As the rig count potentially softens in coming weeks (our forecast is down 70 rigs), AC rigs are more at risk due to contract rollovers, but likely still more resilient than their low-spec peers. For the remainder of 2019, the rig count could firm up sooner than expected if 1) oil prices remain > $50/bbl 2) capex is down < 5% Y/Y, and 3) DUC inventory is reloaded (improving Permian rig efficiency will be BIG headwind, but not until late-2019/2020).

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