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Self-Sourcing Picks Up Steam

This week, we have gathered data on recent sand production and the concurrent trends in customer sourcing. Our key takeaway includes tangible evidence that the surge in sand production is happening, albeit not (yet) fast enough to offset the growth in local sand demand. Meanwhile,...

Midland Productivity Peaking

In this report, we have taken a closer look at Permian IP rates versus well intensity metrics such as footage drilled and sand volumes pumped. In the Midland Basin, our data suggests that IP rates are not keeping up with the recent surge in lateral...

Stubborn Bakken Production

We focused on the Bakken, where production continues to climb despite much lower rig and completion counts. Resilient Bakken production has been helped by the drawdown of DUC inventory in 2017 (contrary to EIA data) while the continued growth in well intensity (ie sand volumes)...

Early 1Q Data – NOT THAT BAD

This week, we have downloaded the most recent completion data, with the key takeaway being early 1Q18 frac activity that is trending better than what the pervasive negative sentiment would suggest. In January, completion activity ac- tually increased from a dismal December while continued improvement...

Disappointing E&P Budgets

To begin March, we summarized recent E&P capex data, updated our 2018 sand forecast, and downloaded 4Q frac efficiency data. The key takeaway is disappointing capex budgets that suggest the rig count could soon peak. Meanwhile, sand demand is also tracking below expectations with sand...

Marcellus Preparing For Spring Frac

This week, we have downloaded January well counts, compiled a list of mines exposed to the CN slowdown, and identified 33 E&Ps (19 new) that could add incremental frac fleets in 2018.  The key takeaway is a surprising near-term jump in Marcellus well count while...

Super-Spec Upgrades On Deck

We have compiled data for super-spec rig capacity, including the potential for upgrades that are “economically feasible”.  The key takeaway is that 750-800 rigs could eventually reach super-spec status, much higher than the 400-450 rigs that are currently demanded.  Separately, we have downloaded January permit...

Midcon Gets Back To Work

We have processed January data, noting the biggest increases from the Midcon (rebound from POOR 4Q) and continued strength in the Permian. Also in the Midcon, several companies are now targeting in-basin mine construction (Preferred being the latest to file a permit), the extension of a trend to source...

Frac Eqiupment Repositioning in 2018

We have performed analysis on the rig-to-frac spread data and found that the rig count in several areas is too low to keep the active spreads fully utilized. With that said, the rig count in the Permian implies a BIG need for frac equipment that...

Permian Still Needs 60 Frac Fleets

To begin 2018, we investigated 2018 frac fleet deployments and implications for US shale production. In West Texas, we have identified demand for an additional 60 frac fleets (3MM horsepower), which, if added, would result in another 1.7MM bbl/d of production growth in the area. Conversely, the Rockies / Bakken...

Midcon Privates Shut For The Holidays

We have taken a closer look at some of the areas that are slowing down for the holidays. One of these is the Midcon, where outside of the SCOOP/STACK, rig and completion activity has fallen considerably over the last few months (RES most exposed). Separately, we have summarized the most...

Early Innings of the Permian Super-Pad

This week, we updated our pad drilling data, frac horsepower, and DUC data. Although higher activity next year is not a surprise, the latest data (DUCs, pad drilling, efficiency) suggests that the magnitude of the ramp in Permian completions (and production) is still underappreciated. For access...

E&Ps Push Spending Through YE

We digested E&P spending guidance for the remainder of 2017, downloaded October spud data, and compared EBITDA per fleet across the industry. The key takeaway has been a renewed inclination for customers to spend that could lead to frac shortages by early 2018. Meanwhile, EBITDA...

Northern White Mines At Risk Of Closure

We force ranked all 50 Northern White mines, identifying 35 MM of capacity that could be shuttered if the sand market becomes oversupplied in 2018/2019 (which we are anticipating). Separately, we have also ranked each of the 350 Permian rigs by drilling efficiency, noting that...

ZipperFrac Inflection

We compared some of the recent anecdotes (efficiency, zipperfracs, well intensity etc) with latest industry data. The key takeaway is that WELL EFFICIENCY is just now turning the corner (getting better) at the same time that WELL INTENSITY is taking a breather. Going forward, fundamentals...

Private Equity Capital STILL Robust

We have updated our list of PE backed operators, including 11 new E&Ps that have added their first rig in just the last 4-weeks (+30 new E&Ps since June). Offsetting the continued PE surge, a handful of large/public E&Ps are starting to cut rig count...

EIA Data Misleading

We have downloaded recent completions, spuds, and DUC counts.  Our key takeaway is that well counts (both spuds & completions) are tracking materially better than the modest 6% Q/Q increase in 3Q rig count.  Well count outperformance is being driven by efficiency gains in the...

Frac Market Consolidation

This week, we have highlighted data for the various private frac companies, processed early 3Q sand data, and updated our fleet count by basin.  Key takeaways include a surprisingly consolidated frac market with only 11 Small/Private competitors (vs 35 in 2014).  Meanwhile, sand intensity data...

Production Data vs Frac Stages

We have 1) highlighted the correlation between U.S. production and frac stage counts, 2) updated expected industry cash flow (ie capacity to spend in 2018), and 3) taken a closer look at recent SLB frac data. Key takeaways include U.S. production that is increasing inline...

Delaware Basin Pulling Ahead

We focused on recent activity in the Delaware Basin, where well data is finally starting to EXCEED expectations.  While the Delaware has been the ‘most covered’ basin over the last 12 months, our data suggests that the increase in well and completion activity is just...

Recent data trends favor HAL

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The Year Of The DUC

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Cash Money Problems

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