We have processed 1Q / 2019 capex and completion data for E&Ps that reported over the last couple weeks, and our most notable takeaway has been the sharp decline in wells placed on production (POP’d) despite higher spending and frac activity (UP 6% in 1Q19)....
We have taken inventory of the latest high-spec rig count, highlighting a noticeable drop in demand as large / public E&Ps finally start to cut (public E&P count was UP 2% in 1Q19). IF public E&Ps live up to their 8-10% capex cut y/y, high-spec...
This week, we have gathered Q1’19 data in preparation for the upcoming earnings season. The most notable datapoint initially has been the sharp cut in new wells spud (-8% q/q), more severe than the modest decline in rig count (and contrary to the INCREASE in...
The number of private operators is declining rapidly (down 15-20% YTD), which is not being appreciated in the overall rig count data (down modestly YTD), and will be a BIG negative headwind on OFS activity in 2019. While ‘BIG-Privates’ (4+ rigs) have been firm, a...
In this report, we have compared public E&P completion guidance to expected frac fleet demand and oil production. Despite the current uptick in activity (fracking late-2018 deferrals), 2H19 completions are at risk if E&Ps stick to current guidance (down 8% y/y). E&P guidance also implies...
Over the last few weeks, we have taken inventory of the current frac count, which includes better fleet demand on higher completion activity (on track to improve ~5% sequentially in 1Q19). Meanwhile, marketed supply (active fleets) has remained flat @ 425 fleets in recent months after...
This week's focus is on small / private operators, the most important wildcard for 2019 OFS activity (now 45% of rig count, increased capex by 40% in 2018). As we dig through recent trends, the most notable takeaway has been resilience of the private E&P...
This week, we have updated our high-spec rig data, downloaded January completion submissions, and compiled a list of potential frac sand mine closures. Our key takeaway is the notable increase in AC rig market share in recent months as initial rig cuts have been low-spec...
We have downloaded the most recent pad drilling data, with the most notable takeaway being the recent increase in Permian multi-well pad activity. In fact, the % of permits that have been filed for multi-well pads in the Permian has jumped to over 80% in...
We have downloaded the most recent completion data, noting a divergence between public E&Ps (down BIG) and private E&Ps (firm). Also in this data, frac efficiency has taken a breather over the last few months, after being UP 20% in 2018, driven by a lower...
In this report, we have gathered OFS data that was filed over the holidays, noting several resilient datapoints (in-spite of tumbling oil prices). Specifically, the number of completion filings has remained stable in recent weeks while the horizontal rig count ended 2018 at the highest...
We have run early 4Q completion data and noted surprising resilience in October (led by private E&Ps). Meanwhile, completion efficiency has continued to increase (up 3% sequentially to 6.1 stages/day), further eating away at frac fleet demand. Companies that are benefiting the most from near-term...
In our latest market update, we have highlighted the five data trends that will have the biggest impact on the U.S. onshore market in 2019 / 2020. The key theme is DOING MORE WITH LESS, emphasizing that broad level completion and production activity will continue...
This week, we have taken a closer look at productivity data in the various basins, noting that the Permian (particularly the Midland Basin) has been a significant laggard over the last few quarters. Also in the Permian, our latest count of completions, spuds and DUCs...
We have digested the last 4-weeks of reported data (unusually large amount of data during earnings season), with special attention to how 4Q18 is shaping up and where 3Q18 landed. Generally speaking, 4Q18 has potential to surprise to the upside with industry spending declining by...
With earnings the past few weeks, we have compiled data from company disclosures (both E&P and OFS) and compared it to broader industry trends. The key takeaway has been the BIG divergence in job efficiency (getting faster at the well) compared to OFS reported volumes...
This week, we’ve taken inventory of the active E&P count in Oct. (now 250), compiled lateral length data for private opera- tors, and updated our cycle time data. Key takeaways include a drop in the number of active E&Ps (net 25 have stopped alldrilling) despite...
We have gathered the latest batch of completion filings, noting that 3Q18 industry data actually held up better than expected. However, even flat completion activity has driven frac utilization into the mid-70% range (frac fleets are more efficient + trickle in of supply) with further...
With the end of the quarter, we have compiled 3Q18 spud counts and updated our completion efficiency data. Broadly speaking, the number of new wells has slowed, except in the Permian, where the new wells drilled continues to move higher (up 5% in 3Q18. Meanwhile,...
We have updated our sand and stages per well data, noting a reacceleration in well intensity from Permian op- erators. While the ramp in local mines has been negative for sand providers, it is creating a windfall for E&Ps that can take advantage of lower...
We have downloaded initial 3Q18 completion data, noting that U.S. activity was surprisingly firm early in the quarter. Areas of strength included the Bakken, Delaware, and Eagle Ford, while the Marcellus, Utica, and Haynesville have turned sharply lower. We have also updated our completions vs...
This week, we are reviewing the latest spud data and reporting datapoints from our recent field visit to Oklahoma. Generally speaking, new well activity has been flat in July /August (inline with the rig count) with a surprising increase in the Midland Basin (up 10%)....
In compiling our 3Q18 Data Packet, we have been surprised at how strong the data has been trending YTD. In fact, completions are now expected to be around 14,800 in 2018 (which still implies a big drop in 4Q), 10% higher than our expectations at...
We have highlighted trends from our most recent sand / completion download (June / July data), noting a record amount of sand that frac fleets are now pumping through their equipment (1.55 MM lbs / day). We also called out a small group of public...
We have updated our pad drilling data for 1H18, processed July spud counts / rig efficiency data, and down-loaded permit data through August 10. Most notable to us has been the step-up in the number of wells being drilled on pads, particularly for large E&Ps...
In this report, we have 1) collected capex data from the first round of E&Ps 2) compared this week’s EIA production report to our latest completion data and 3) highlighted diverging trends in DUC backlog. Our key takeaway includes shrinking OFS demand as E&Ps become...
We have updated our frac reactivation / newbuild schedule, calculated new well cost data, and isolated production data for the private E&Ps (following recent rig count surge) for this quarter. Our takeaway is generally positive, as the headwinds in 2H18 (supply / pricing / E&P...
This week, we have highlighted several negative datapoints that suggest the rig count could start to soften in 2H18 (despite the recent increase in oil prices). Some of those datapoints include 1) public E&P spending that is running way ahead of full year guidance AND...
We have downloaded initial 2Q18 OFS data, noting continued strength in completion activity (tracking +15% Q/Q), particularly in the Rockies / Bakken. However, the latest data has also featured another increase in frac efficiency (up 5% from 1Q18), which is continuing to be a drag on overall...
This quarter, we have re-assesed OFS activity in the Permian as bottlenecks become a growing concern. As such, we are now anticipating the Permian rig count to decline by 50-75 rigs by YE while only 10-15 fleets are added to the Permian (had previously expected...
Over the last two days, we met with a large number of service companies and E&Ps at the DUG Permian conference in Fort Worth. Our key takeaway included overwhelming demand for local sand (much faster than what can be produced) while spot prices for frac...
This week, our focus shifted to the Eagle Ford where resilient production and completion trends are outpacing the modest 80 rigs drilling in the area. After a closer look, Eagle Ford completions have been supported by the quiet drawdown of the DUC inventory over the...
In this report, we have compared trends in private E&P data to that of the public companies as it relates to spending, permits and rig data. The most notable takeaway has been the recent wave of private equity backed E&Ps that have led permits and...
This week, we have gathered data on recent sand production and the concurrent trends in customer sourcing. Our key takeaway includes tangible evidence that the surge in sand production is happening, albeit not (yet) fast enough to offset the growth in local sand demand. Meanwhile,...
In this report, we have taken a closer look at Permian IP rates versus well intensity metrics such as footage drilled and sand volumes pumped. In the Midland Basin, our data suggests that IP rates are not keeping up with the recent surge in lateral...
We focused on the Bakken, where production continues to climb despite much lower rig and completion counts. Resilient Bakken production has been helped by the drawdown of DUC inventory in 2017 (contrary to EIA data) while the continued growth in well intensity (ie sand volumes)...
This week, we have downloaded the most recent completion data, with the key takeaway being early 1Q18 frac activity that is trending better than what the pervasive negative sentiment would suggest. In January, completion activity ac- tually increased from a dismal December while continued improvement...
To begin March, we summarized recent E&P capex data, updated our 2018 sand forecast, and downloaded 4Q frac efficiency data. The key takeaway is disappointing capex budgets that suggest the rig count could soon peak. Meanwhile, sand demand is also tracking below expectations with sand...
This week, we have downloaded January well counts, compiled a list of mines exposed to the CN slowdown, and identified 33 E&Ps (19 new) that could add incremental frac fleets in 2018. The key takeaway is a surprising near-term jump in Marcellus well count while...
We have compiled data for super-spec rig capacity, including the potential for upgrades that are “economically feasible”. The key takeaway is that 750-800 rigs could eventually reach super-spec status, much higher than the 400-450 rigs that are currently demanded. Separately, we have downloaded January permit...
We have processed January data, noting the biggest increases from the Midcon (rebound from POOR 4Q) and continued strength in the Permian. Also in the Midcon, several companies are now targeting in-basin mine construction (Preferred being the latest to file a permit), the extension of a trend to source...
We have performed analysis on the rig-to-frac spread data and found that the rig count in several areas is too low to keep the active spreads fully utilized. With that said, the rig count in the Permian implies a BIG need for frac equipment that...
To begin 2018, we investigated 2018 frac fleet deployments and implications for US shale production. In West Texas, we have identified demand for an additional 60 frac fleets (3MM horsepower), which, if added, would result in another 1.7MM bbl/d of production growth in the area. Conversely, the Rockies / Bakken...
We have taken a closer look at some of the areas that are slowing down for the holidays. One of these is the Midcon, where outside of the SCOOP/STACK, rig and completion activity has fallen considerably over the last few months (RES most exposed). Separately, we have summarized the most...
This week, we updated our pad drilling data, frac horsepower, and DUC data. Although higher activity next year is not a surprise, the latest data (DUCs, pad drilling, efficiency) suggests that the magnitude of the ramp in Permian completions (and production) is still underappreciated. For access...
We digested E&P spending guidance for the remainder of 2017, downloaded October spud data, and compared EBITDA per fleet across the industry. The key takeaway has been a renewed inclination for customers to spend that could lead to frac shortages by early 2018. Meanwhile, EBITDA...
We force ranked all 50 Northern White mines, identifying 35 MM of capacity that could be shuttered if the sand market becomes oversupplied in 2018/2019 (which we are anticipating). Separately, we have also ranked each of the 350 Permian rigs by drilling efficiency, noting that...
We compared some of the recent anecdotes (efficiency, zipperfracs, well intensity etc) with latest industry data. The key takeaway is that WELL EFFICIENCY is just now turning the corner (getting better) at the same time that WELL INTENSITY is taking a breather. Going forward, fundamentals...
We have updated our list of PE backed operators, including 11 new E&Ps that have added their first rig in just the last 4-weeks (+30 new E&Ps since June). Offsetting the continued PE surge, a handful of large/public E&Ps are starting to cut rig count...
We have downloaded recent completions, spuds, and DUC counts. Our key takeaway is that well counts (both spuds & completions) are tracking materially better than the modest 6% Q/Q increase in 3Q rig count. Well count outperformance is being driven by efficiency gains in the...