In this report, we have compared public E&P completion guidance to expected frac fleet demand and oil production. Despite the current uptick in activity (fracking late-2018 deferrals), 2H19 completions are at risk if E&Ps stick to current guidance (down 8% y/y). E&P guidance also implies that frac stages would fall below 45,000 per month by mid-2019 (375-400 active fleets vs 425 today), the key level needed to keep U.S. production flat.